America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. It was easy. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Blaine County. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. We have become so divided. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Theres too much mishandling, she said. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief.
What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. At least Biden is honest, he said. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984.
County Legislature Approves Revised $75 Million ARPA Spending Plan With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. I believe in a time cycle. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. I think we needed somebody like him.. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic.
The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said.
The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats.
What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. We were as far down to five cooks last year. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election.
Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether He considers Trump pro-life. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Our roads need to be fixed. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Its too big. Its crazy. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Pre-performance Lobby events. Were a service industry-oriented area. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times.
MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money.
Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Theyre scared. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. People need to get a job, get out and work. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years.
We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. It will cycle through. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Please read our comments policy before commenting. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Im looking at both sides of it. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Jim Hoft. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . I find that hard to believe. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said.
Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. I kind of keep in my bubble. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. And it can happen.. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Weve never done that before.. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues .
And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. I dont watch TV. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge..
With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Im not happy with either party. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Required fields are marked *. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job..
US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either.
16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. I think all politicians are crooks. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. The morale of the people up there is bad. Theres too much corruption. Your email address will not be published.
"Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas.
There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn.
Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Theres significant variability among them, though. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Its gone, Jacobs said. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have.
MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out.